Japanese Yen oscillates in range amid BoJ-Fed divergence and geopolitical optimism
- The Japanese Yen remains confined in a nearly three-week-old range against the USD.
- The divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations lend some support to the lower-yielding JPY.
- Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal could undermine and cap the safe-haven JPY.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is seen oscillating in a range against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Tuesday amid mixed fundamental cues. The growing acceptance is that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will stick to its policy normalization path and hike interest rates by the year-end. Moreover, the cautious market mood acts as a tailwind for the JPY. Apart from this, the lack of follow-through US Dollar (USD) buying caps the USD/JPY pair near the 148.00 mark. Meanwhile, the BoJ's hawkish outlook marks a significant divergence in comparison to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September. This keeps a lid on the overnight USD rally and further benefits the lower-yielding JPY.
However, hopes for an early deal to end the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war seem to undermine traditional safe-haven assets and could act as a headwind for the JPY. Traders now look to the release of flash PMIs on Thursday for a fresh insight into the global economic health, which, in turn, will influence the risk sentiment. The focus, however, will remain glued to FOMC Minutes on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium for more cues about the future rate-cut path. The outlook will drive the USD demand and provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair. In the meantime, the fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for aggressive traders and before placing directional bets.
Japanese Yen bulls seem reluctant as receding safe-haven demand offsets BoJ rate hike bets
- The Bank of Japan revised its inflation forecast at the end of the July meeting and reiterated that it will raise interest rates further if growth and inflation continue to advance in line with its estimates. Adding to this, data released last week showed that Japan's economy expanded more than expected in the second quarter despite US tariff headwinds, keeping the door open for an imminent BoJ rate hike by the end of this year.
- Meanwhile, traders tempered their bets for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve amid signs of momentum in price pressures. However, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated a nearly 85% chance that the US central bank would lower borrowing costs in September. Moreover, the possibility of two 25 basis points rate cuts by the Fed in 2025 marks a significant divergence in comparison to the BoJ's hawkish outlook.
- On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump announced on Monday that he had begun preparations for a face-to-face meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. This followed a summit with Zelensky and the European leaders earlier in the day, fueling hopes for an early peace deal to end Europe's deadliest war in 80 years and denting demand for safe-haven assets.
- The ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s loss in Japan's upper house election in July adds a layer of uncertainty amid concerns about the potential negative impact of higher US tariffs on the domestic economy. This, in turn, suggests that the prospects for the BoJ rate hike could be delayed, which, so far, has held back traders from placing bullish bets around the Japanese Yen and might continue to act as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.
- Tuesday's US economic docket features the release of housing market data – Building Permits and Housing Starts. This, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, might provide some impetus to the USD. The focus, however, will remain glued to FOMC meeting Minutes on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which will be looked for cues about the future rate-cut path.
- Apart from this, traders this week will confront the release of the flash global PMIs on Thursday, which might contribute to infusing volatility in the financial markets and providing some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, the aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before positioning for a firm near-term direction.
USD/JPY traders await a breakout through short-term range before placing directional bets
The USD/JPY pair's range-bound price action witnessed over the past two weeks or so might be categorized as a consolidation phase amid neutral technical indicators on the daily chart. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for an eventual break on either side before positioning for the next leg of a directional move.
Meanwhile, a sustained strength and acceptance above the 148.00 mark would be seen as a key trigger for the USD/JPY bulls. This should pave the way for gains towards the 148.55-148.60 region, or the 50% retracement level of the downfall from the monthly high, en route to the 149.00 round-figure mark.
On the flip side, any corrective slide could find decent support near the 147.10-147.00 area. A convincing break below could make the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to retest the multi-week low, around the 146.20 zone, touched last Thursday. A subsequent slide below the 146.00 mark might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.