EUR/USD holds loses around 1.1650 ahead of Eurozone PMI data
- EUR/USD remains subdued as traders adopt caution ahead of HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index data.
- Eurozone HCOB PMIs forecast stand at 49.5 for Manufacturing and 50.6 for Services.
- The FOMC Meeting Minutes indicated that most members viewed keeping interest rates unchanged as the appropriate decision.
EUR/USD edges lower after registering slight gains in the previous session, trading around 1.1640 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The Euro (EUR) depreciates against the US Dollar (USD) ahead of HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from Germany and the Eurozone.
Germany’s HCOB PMI data is scheduled to be released on Thursday at 07:30 GMT, with the Services PMI expected at 50.3. The Eurozone HCOB PMIs follow at 08:00 GMT, with forecasts pointing to 49.5 for Manufacturing and 50.6 for Services.
On Wednesday, the Eurostat reported that the European Union (EU) Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) climbed 2% year-over-year as expected in July. Core HICP figures came at 2.3% YoY as expected and unchanged from June’s print.
ECB’s President Christine Lagarde stated that recent trade deals have alleviated but not eliminated uncertainty. Lagarde also added that the European economy remains resilient in the face of a challenging global environment.
The EUR/USD pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) receives support after the release of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Minutes for the July 29-30 meeting on Wednesday. The minutes indicated that most Federal Reserve (Fed) officials emphasized that inflation risks outweighed labor market concerns during last month’s meeting, as tariffs deepened divisions among policymakers. Most policymakers considered it appropriate to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%–4.50% range.
The CME FedWatch tool suggests that Fed funds futures traders are currently pricing in an 82% chance of a rate cut in September. Traders are awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming on Friday, which may provide clues about the September policy decision.
Economic Indicator
HCOB Services PMI
The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the Eurozone services sector. As the services sector dominates a large part of the economy, the Services PMI is an important indicator gauging the state of overall economic conditions. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among services providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR.
Read more.Next release: Thu Aug 21, 2025 08:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 50.6
Previous: 51
Source: S&P Global