Gold bounces off daily low on softer USD; not out of the woods amid Fed rate hike bets
- Gold recovers from the daily low amid a modest USD pullback, though it lacks follow-through.
- Elevated crude oil prices fuel inflation fears and bolster Fed hike bets, undermining the bullion.
- Escalating US-Iran tensions and Trump’s tariffs favor USD bulls, capping the precious metal.
Gold (XAU/USD) recovers modest intraday losses amid a modest US Dollar (USD) pullback, though remains below the $4,050 level heading into the European session on Friday. Crude oil prices remain elevated amid escalating US-Iran tensions, fueling inflation fears and bolstering expectations of higher-for-longer US interest rates. This might continue to act as a tailwind for the USD and keep a lid on any meaningful appreciation for the non-yielding bullion.
The US military announced that it has completed another round of strikes against Iran on Thursday, marking the 13th straight night of operations. In a statement, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that its forces targeted “Iranian military command centers, drone storage facilities, communication networks, coastal surveillance sites, and maritime capabilities.” The attack was aimed at diminishing further the threat Iran poses to civilian mariners and commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
The latest strikes come amid a widening regional confrontation, with Iran and its allies launching retaliatory strikes against US-linked military assets in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. Moreover, Iran-aligned Houthi forces struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, describing the action as part of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and extending the Middle East war to a second major shipping chokepoint. This exacerbates supply disruption concerns and lifts crude oil prices to a fresh high since June 11.
Investors remain worried that elevated crude oil prices will rekindle inflationary pressure and force major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to adopt a more hawkish stance. Adding to this, data released on Thursday showed that US Jobless Claims fell to the lowest level since September 1969, pointing to a resilient labor market. This should allow Fed officials to keep their focus on containing inflation, which backs the case for at least one interest rate hike move by the end of this year.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump imposed sweeping new tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on 60 of the country's key trading partners, covering 99.4% of US imports. The latest developments threaten to reignite a global trade war, tempering investors' appetite for riskier assets and further benefiting the Greenback's reserve currency status. This, in turn, backs the case for an extension of the XAU/USD pair's pullback from a two-week top, set on Wednesday, as the focus shifts to the FOMC next week.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold could sellers at higher levels as fall to $4,000 remains on the cards
From a technical perspective, this week's failure near the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the subsequent fall suggest that the recent bounce from the $3,960-$3,959 area, or the monthly low, has run out of steam. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is in negative territory, with the line deeply below zero, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 41, hinting that downside momentum remains in play.
Some follow-through selling below the $4,000 psychological mark and the $3,980-$3,975 support will reaffirm the negative outlook, setting the stage for deeper losses. Meanwhile, intraday floors are likely to be determined by prior price reactions rather than well-established indicator-based levels. On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 200-period EMA at $4,158.08, and only a sustained recovery above this medium-term barrier would start to ease the prevailing downside pressure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.